Saturday, March 24, 2018

Charles and David Koch Historical Net Worth from 1984-2018 (Koch Outperformed S&P 500)



Most recently I blogged about David Koch and his billionaire homes and lifestyle. For a number of years I have updated this analysis to show the net worth for Charles and David Koch (beginning back in 1984). The data came from historical articles (Newsbank database), AP, USA Today, and most recently Forbes magazine. 

Forbes ranked Charles and David Koch as each being worth $60 billion. What you can see is a staggering increase in net worth over time. The major source of the growth was after the acquisition of Georgia Pacific (my analysis of that deal here). What you do notice though is although the net worth has increased substantially there is quite some volatility in terms of the the net worth. One way to measure this is standard deviation. The standard deviation from 1984-2018 is roughly 41% for the Koch net worth. To put this in perspective the standard deviation of the Standard & Poor's 500 index is close to 11% (from 1984-2017). This would say that the Koch net worth has been twice as volatile as the stock market. When looking at the return side though the annual compound growth of the Koch net worth is 18%/year while the S&P 500 index (for the same period) was 11%. If you were to compare this on a risk to reward basis (compare the return to the standard deviation) it would say the S&P 500 is a better bet, however the annual difference in the compound growth has made a large difference over time.

If Charles and David Koch said back in 1984 "let's retire and just invest our money in the stock market) they would have invested roughly $375 million each (net worth at the time). Charles in 1984 would have only been 49 years old and David would have been 44 years old. Had those monies been invested in the stock market Charles and David Koch each would have been worth $37 billion each (currently as I write this they are worth $60 billion according to Forbes). This 62% increase represents the reward for the volatility (standard deviation). Also if the Koch brothers had invested those monies in the stock market their dividends would be $680 million (assuming a current 1.86% dividend yield). I estimated that Charles and David Koch each pull in roughly $200 million of dividends per year. Koch Industries has a policy of reinvesting 90% of the earnings back into the company (for capital expenditures, acquisitions, making improvements). According to this article back in 2012 Dave Robertson (President and CEO of Koch Industries) said that Charles Koch "is really focused on the present value of future cash flows, thinking long term". The benefit is the company reinvesting nearly all of the earnings is that the company will continue to grow. The downside is that the cost of growth is not being able to pay out as large of a dividend. Most Fortune 500 companies steadily increase their quarterly dividends to appease shareholders and analysts. However, since Koch Industries is a private company they don't have to disclose their financials. Charles Koch back in this 2006 interview felt "the short term infatuation with quarterly earnings on Wall-Street restricts the earnings potential of Fortune 500 publicly traded companies". Also Koch Industries is much more diversified now than they probably ever been before in their history. Dale Robertson made the comment back in 2012 the company was more diversified at that point than back in 2000 and that a smaller percentage of revenue comes from energy related things (however it is still a significant part of their revenue).

Charles and David Koch has obviously grown Koch Industries to a level they probably never even thought possible. In this 2015 interview Charles Koch said when he first joined Koch Industries he tried to plot out his future success. Koch estimated the growth of Koch Industries out to his retirement and then looking back at his analysis said that in 2013 he exceed his lifetime goal by a 70 fold increase. David Koch in this MSNBC interview said that when he joined the company the revenues were $6 million revenue (when he joined as a salesman in 1970)  and recently the revenues were $2 billion (in 2015) which would be near a 14% annual growth rate. It is quite interesting in terms of the growth story that Koch Industries has had. The question is will it continue after Charles and David Koch are no longer at Koch Industries. 

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