Friday, May 21, 2010

BP = Beyond Pollution?


British Petroleum has recently come under fire for an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. BP, Deepwater Horizon, and Halliburton have also been accused of wrong-doing in the case of the BP spill. The spill started at 9:45 P.M. April 20, 2010 and will continue to spew out oil. At first the oil rig caught fire killing 11 employees. At first BP stated that they believed 5,000 barrels of oil per day were spilling but then later revised that number to 100,000 barrels per day. With the current price of a barrel of oil around $66 the company is losing $6.6 million per day on just the oil alone. This figure doesn’t include the clean-up costs, lawsuits, and other expenses related to the spill. BP claims that the cost per day to clean up the spill is around $10 million. What seems clear is that some party is at fault for the spill. BP, Deepwater, Halliburton or a combination of all three could be at fault for the accident. However, it might be hard for some people to understand that perhaps no one party cause the spill it could be shared among all these companies and maybe other contractors that worked on the rig. Obviously these companies didn’t want the spill to occur since they would lose their reputation which is worth billions of dollars. The companies involved have been hurt dramatically since the spill. As of today, BP is down close to 27% since the oil spill started. Halliburton has been down 17% since the spill started. These stocks could still continue to go down since the market does not know what the true liability for these companies are. Exxon had a spill in 1989 that took many months to clean up. The difference however was that Exxon Valdez ship only had so much oil as opposed to a rig that can keep spilling oil until it gets fixed. The plaintiffs that sued Exxon in 1989 didn’t receive their final judgment until June 15, 2009 nearly 20 years after the spill occurred! Not only did it take a long time the judgment was decreased from $5 billion to $507.5 million. I believe a similar situation will happen with the BP case since the company will voluntarily put in billions to clean up and have to deal with lawsuits. Should the government get involved in oil spills? I think the answer is somewhat of a yes since an oil spill does impose an externality onto the environment and the people. We have courts to dispute torts (wrongs against people). Not only can this but the no amount of regulation can make up for the loss of reputation of the firms involved in the spill. Also why were these rigs so far off shore? Was it because of regulations or just because it would have been easier to find oil? In addition to this, why don’t we have more above grounds rigs? At least if the rig is above round than it is easy to fix the spill. Drilling for oil is not an easy thing and risks are always involved. To say we should drill less or just not drill at all assumes people would be willing to pay European prices for gasoline. More drilling will result in fewer spills since people will become more experienced in figuring out what problems might arise or what could go wrong. This spill will make future oil spills less likely since companies will spend money on preventing oil spills or by making sure that if a spill occurs they have the resources to take care of it. People in Washington D.C. don’t agree with this logic and simply want to create new regulations which will increase cost not only to oil drillers but also to consumers since companies pass on costs. Perhaps less regulation would have not caused the BP spill. Time will only tell as to what the ramifications are of the spill, what parties were affected, and how things will be done differently in the future. However, it is a really good time to be a litigation lawyer or a fisherman in the Gulf Coastal area.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Genius of Richard Epstein



21:42-Introduction to Epstein
21:45-36:50 Explaining problems with Obamacare
40:40- 42:23 Insurance
After 45:00 Q&A

YouTube and Profitability


I often wonder how YouTube is still in business. YouTube is owned by Google and provides free video content to millions of people. Although, let's think about this if I never pay YouTube a penny for using it I get a free service since advertisers are paying to place their ads on the site. YouTube may have millions of viewers buy how many of them actually look at or use the product advertised? This is probably why I have a problem with marketing in general. Marketing can rarely be quantified or measured for success. It is not like investing where you can see your return or how much you made. With marketing it is almost impossible to quantify how much of an impact the advertisement made. This brings me back to YouTube.

"An April 2009 report from Credit Suisse did nothing to suggest that YouTube had finally figured things out: It predicted that Google would spend $470 million this year on YouTube, the result of high infrastructure costs without revenue to match" according to InformationWeek.

Google bought YouTube for $1.65 billion in 2006. YouTube manages 200 million uploads per day! The cost of storing data, video, and music on a hard drive has decreased dramatically. YouTube will eventually have to increase storage or figure out some way to get more revenue if they want to remain in business. My own personal view is that Google which is full of free cash flow will hold onto YouTube as a loss leader and either have to either a)start charging people b) restrict the amount of uploads c) go out of business. YouTube can't sustain its exponential growth rate without some serious changes.

However, the positive is that YouTube has benefited many businesses, doctors, performers, and entrepreneurs by allowing people to share their content and to use as a marketing strategy to leverage for their business. This group has benefitted from the ability of posting free content since it is free advertising to help get the word out.

I personally wouldn't mind paying for YouTube if it was relatively cheap and was constantly adding quality material. For instance, why can't I buy or find online an interview on The Tonight Show unless it was a memorable interview? Couldn't the companies that own this content release it and charge it similar to an I-Tunes system? With millions of hours of content somewhere companies that own the content could increase revenue but letting people buy it. The content has opportunity costs since it is isn’t broadcasted and could be making money for the owners of the content. Maybe Hollywood needs to take some business classes.